"Strategery" -- think war not battle

On the Pajama Jihad blog, Nathan Azinger, a young, bright and engaging Pierce County Republican (which is why I read his stuff), suggested that - contrary to conventional wisdom - of the two Democrat 26th District State Representatives, Pat Lantz, the (very) senior of the two is actually the more vulnerable. That freshman State Representative Derek Kilmer (D - Gig Harbor), in Nathan's eyes, is less vulnerable is because Derek voted very close to his district beliefs during some key votes during his first session. And, according to Nathan's experience, Derek answers his mail better than 26th District Senator Bob Oke (R - Port Orchard). While the latter is comparing apples to oranges, Bob Oke is doing yeoman's work in the Senate - his perceived mail responsiveness notwithstanding. He devotes lots of floor time (and votes) while in pain from chemotherapy. That is public service way beyond the call of duty.

I agree with Nathan that Pat Lantz is actually the more vulnerable in 2006. She is carrying around too much ultra-liberal baggage from her years in the House and from this year's votes especially. More importantly, she is Chair of the House Judiciary Committee and is the PRIME reason we have not taken even a single step in getting real lawsuit abuse reform in this state. (Well, she is a trial lawyer and gets a lot of Trial Lawyers' Association campaign money, but I am sure that it is merely coincidence.) More pertinent, she won her seat against newcomer Republican Matt Rice in 2004 by only 361 votes (0.5%) mostly from Kitsap. And the Libertarian candidate got 1,792 votes. Where would those votes have gone had there been no Libertarian? And in a Presidential year, the Kitsap side of the 26th District produces 2000 more votes than the Pierce side...and Kitsap votes more Democrat and Pierce more Republican. In the off year elections like 2006, the reverse is true. So if we work at it, Pat Lantz' House seat will be a Republican pick up in 2006. Bye-bye law suit abuse.

What about Derek? Derek is an attractive, likable, bright young legislator that the Democrats were lucky to recruit. His fiscal instincts are much more conservative that the Democrat party generally, but his social agenda is more liberal than the district. As much as Republicans may agree with his NO vote on the 9.5 cent gas tax and on overturning I-601 spending limits, it is the first vote of the session that makes the difference. That vote? Who will be Speaker of the House. Recall from your high school civics class: the Speaker is the linchpin of the House. It is the Speaker who chooses the Committee Chairs and it is the Committee Chairs who determine, alone, what bills are heard and which are allowed to be voted on. And even when a bill passes out of a committee, it is the Speaker alone who determines what bills will reach the floor for a vote and in what order. (No, you say. It is the Rules Committee who decides. Well, yes and no. Yes, they do choose what bills are "pulled" to the floor, but, no, it is the Speaker alone who decides what bills they can even look at to "pull").

Just as important, Democrat Legislators are given a "pass" (allowed to vote the district not the party line) if there are otherwise enough Democrat votes to get a piece of legislation passed. This year, for example, Derek, Dawn Morrell (D-25, Puyallup), and Tami Green (D-28, Lakewood) were allowed to vote against the gas tax and dumping I-601 because there were enough votes in the Democrat caucus to pass those two bills and the Democrat leadership knew that if any of those legislators voted against their district they would be in trouble. But this only works when the Democrats have a large majority. We need to replace Derek, however nice a guy he is, because his first vote, for Speaker, is VERY Seattle liberal and way out of step with the 26th District.

Now is the time to think about the war, to think about an overall game plan to gain the majority in the Washington State House of Representatives - and who we have to do it. Now is not the time to worry about the tactics of the battle like where to put signs and what bills we need to support. We need to find great candidates to face Derek and Pat (Beckie Kranz and Matt Rice come to mind).

Are there any other credible candidates out there?

My $00.02 offered with perfect 20/20 hindsight.

Deryl